Sunday, July 26, 2009

Tour de France Over

COL D'AGNES, FRANCE - JULY 11:  11:  Lance Arm...Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Well the Tour de France is over. Contador took the yellow. Schleck was 2nd and Armstrong was 3rd. I feel pretty good about my predictions. All three of them were in my top five, and in that order. The two I messed up on were Cadel Evans, who (as my business partner Will is fond of saying) asploded, and Levi who had to abandon the Tour because of a broken wrist. I feel really bad about Levi, first off I think he deserves to be a team leader on his own team, not riding support for someone else. Secondly he hasn't had a lot of luck in the Tour and to have to leave it prematurely again is a real tragedy.

There were lots of controversies in this year's tour. First was the whole dust-up about Contador dropping Klöden on the Col de la Colombière. The recriminations came because there was this idea that Astana might be able to sweep the podium, and by dropping Klöden, Contador made that impossible. Well Bruyneel has been publicly saying that whoever is the strongest would be the team leader. So Contador has that on his plate, and then people expect him, additionally to get two of his team-mates on the podium as well?

Also let's say that all the time Klöden lost on the Colombière went away, well then, yeah, he is on the podium, but he knocks Armstrong off, so you still don't have three Astana on the podium... So while I think the majority felt that the attack was a mistake, in the final analysis, it either didn't matter or was exactly the sort of thing Contador needed to do to win.

One of the other big dust-ups was Cavendish made the claim that the only way Thor could win the Green Jersey competition was by complaining about Cavendish and getting him relegated. So Thor goes on a big attack and manages to take two intermediate sprints to put Cavendish in his place. Cavendish ends up apologizing and basically says that Thor deserves the green jersey. Well guess what, when the smoke finally cleared, he was right. Thor won the green by fewer points than Cavendish lost from the relegation. Another case where the convention wisdom says one thing and in retrospect they were wrong, but no one bothers to point it out...

Overall the Tour could have been better. One problem is that rather than enhancing the drama the Armstrong vs. Contador battle just annoyed me. Also Ventoux was kind of anti-climatic, and not much really happened in the first two weeks. 2010 though, is shaping up to be very exciting. For one thing, I'd much rather see an Armstrong vs. Contador battle with them on different teams then with them on the same team.

2009: First Japanese riders to reach Paris

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Long overdue Tour Update

Bradley Wiggins at the Prologue of the Tour of...Image via Wikipedia

Well if you were following the tour very closely you'll have noticed that the first couple of weeks were kind of boring. Sure there was some back and forth between Armstrong and Contador which was much discussed in the media. Whether the rift was as severe as people tried to make it, or whether it was all part of some really deep plan by Bruyneel is not clear, but I suspect it's a little bit of both. The thing that bugged me was that it seemed obvious fairly early on that Contador was the stronger rider. But I guess it wasn't really unmistakable until Sunday, when the tour finally got really exciting. Contador rode to a stage win and finally took yellow.

Today's stage, which is taking place as I write this, has been really exciting. Thor Hushovd managed to get out in front and solo through both of the intermediate sprints giving him a fairly nice lead in the green jersey competition. Then, once they hit the final couple of climbs (two Cat. 1's really close together) there was some great attacking. Bradley Wiggins, the great revelation of this tour, has been dropped though he's staying relatively close, and he's a great time trialist so we'll see how bad this stage ends up hurting him. At the moment he's 1:41 behind the Schleck brothers on the stage.

Some other interesting things from this stage. Cadel Evans, who has had a fairly disappointing tour, finally blew up and was dropped on the first climb of the day (when Thor was in the front of the race) and Carlos Sastre, launched the first big attack of the day among the GC contenders and then he was dropped only a couple minutes later. I've never been a big fan of Sastre. I'm sure he's a nice guy, I just haven't ever been impressed by him. So to see him crack serves to give me a certain level of satisfaction since I previously said that I didn't think much of his chances. Of course I also had Cadel as my #2 pick after Contador, so I probably shouldn't gloat too much...

And Frank takes it...

Wednesday, July 08, 2009

Big Sandy Lodge

The Wind River Range, Wyoming, as viewed from ...Image via Wikipedia

Well I'm back. I missed some really exciting tour stages. Columbia managed to open up a split in the peleton, Armstrong made the split, but Contador didn't, and lost 40 seconds. Then the next day after the team time trial, Cancellara managed to keep yellow by 22/100th of a second... Oh well so it goes. I'll catch all the exciting bits on the rest day recap.

So the vacation... We drove up right after church on Sunday and got in around 5 pm. We had dinner at the lodge. That's one thing about the Big Sandy Lodge, they make incredible meals. The next day we started off with a two hour horse-ride. I'm glad it wasn't any longer, riding a horse puts pressure on parts of my body that aren't used to it. My hip was particularly sore after the ride. The rest of the day was spent napping, reading and playing board games with the family.

Yesterday was the hike. I've been really happy with how cool and wet the summer has been thus far. What I didn't realize was that a wet June meant that the mosquitoes would be particularly bad. I've been to the Wind Rivers quite a bit, and I don't believe I've ever seen mosquitoes even half as bad as they were Tuesday morning when we started the hike. I kid you not, an hour and a half into the hike I wasn't sure I could make it. While you're moving they have at least a little difficulty keeping up, but the minute you sit down, suddenly there's literally hundreds of them. I wasn't sure how we were going to eat.

Fortunately we gained a little bit of altitude which helped thin them out and then, shortly before we were going to stop for lunch we got some wind and that really helped out. Without that, I may have lost my mind... In any case I don't want to go too overboard it was still a really nice hike. I figure we ended up doing 9 miles total, which when you consider that my youngest is 6, is pretty impressive. All told we were out for just over seven hours.

Absent the mosquitoes it was really just about the perfect vacation and even with the mosquitoes it was a really good vacation. Still, as always, it's nice to be back.

I would genocide those little devils in a heartbeat

Saturday, July 04, 2009

Tour de France

Tour de FranceImage via Wikipedia

Well people have been bugging me about blogging, and I confess that I really dropped the ball. I could say things have been crazy, I could say that I don't have any time, but that's always the case. I'm not sure what exactly caused my long hiatus nor do I make any promises that I will start blogging regularly again, but how could I let the Tour pass without my normal commentary? (Thanks Dismas!)

I should mention that I leave tomorrow for a four-day three-night trip to a place without electricity, to say nothing of internet. So even if I wanted to there's no way I will be posting any updates on Sunday, Monday or Tuesday. Anyway, with that caveat I'll dive in.

Today was stage one of the Tour de France, this would normally be called the prologue, but I guess that organizers felt that it was too long to be a prologue. Fabian Cancellara won the stage, which shouldn't really surprise anyone. Alberto Contador came in 2nd. I don't think many people are surprised by this result, but they should be. As you may recall Contador started as just a really promising climber. Initially his time trialing was not that great. For him to get into a form where he comes in second, on a short time trial is pretty impressive. I mean look at the time trial specialists he beat: Levi Leipheimer, Cadel Evans, Kloden, Zabriski, Millar, and of course Armstrong.

So what about Armstrong? Well from what I saw at the Giro, he was coming into form near the end. I expect him to do well, but he's 37, and even if he comes into this tour better prepared than ever he just doesn't have the same engine. So other than Contador who do I think will do well? Okay here's my list:

1- Alberto Contador
2- Cadel Evans
3- Andy Schleck
4- Levi Leipheimer
5- Lance Armstrong

I should probably include Carlos Sastre, but for some reason I've never liked him. Anyway there you go. I'll try and post about the team time trial (even though I'll miss it live) on Wednesday.

Give Me Liberty or Give Me Death!

Monday, April 20, 2009

Cold Fusion on 60 Minutes

A cold fusion calorimeter of the open type, us...Image via Wikipedia

Long time readers may know that I have a soft spot for "Cold Fusion" (though I think they prefer the term "Low Energy Nuclear Reactions") these days. In fact if you look on the right hand side you'll see a link to one of the main Cold Fusion websites (along with some other links that are probably woefully out of date). In any case I've long felt that there was something to the whole idea. And that while it may have been horribly wounded by mistakes that were made early on, that it would end up being a great example of truth eventually prevailing over doubt by dint of massive amounts of experimental evidence.

Anyway it's the 20th anniversary of the (disastrous) initial press conference and people are taking another look (of course some people haven't stopped looking). Including 60 minutes which did a piece on it. I would urge you to watch it, it's about 12 minutes long and they do a really good job of examining the issue, going so far as to ask the American Physical Society, the top physics organization in America, to recommend an independent scientist. They recommended Rob Duncan, vice chancellor of research at the University of Missouri and an expert in measuring energy. Who went from a skeptic to a believer after spending two days at a Cold Fusion laboratory.

There is still the problem that it only works about 70% of the time, and it's not quite ready to give the world unlimited clean energy yet, but the whole thing is tremendously fascinating and exciting.

Coldfusion doesn't work I should know I have had to migrate a lot of sites from it to php.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Parkinson's Law for Hiring

Cover of "Parkinson's Law"Cover of Parkinson's Law

I read a fair number of business books, particularly as a percentage of pages. One thing you'll notice when you do read a lot of them is that they don't age well. Which is not to say that they're worthless more that business just changes too fast for anything to be true for very long. The notable exception to this rule is "Parkinson's Law" by C. Northcote Parkinson. My dad recommended it to me many years ago. He had noticed the "not aging gracefully" problem as well and so he decided to start with the business book with the oldest copyright, which was "Parkinson's Law".

"Parkinson's Law" is actually grouped with humor books, but like a lot of jokes there's more truth in the jest than in a thousand serious statements. Parkinson makes a lot of points, the best know of which is that "Work expands to fill the time available for it's completion." But there are many others, and it's fascinating to see how true they still are. One of my favorites is that when an organization builds a nice new headquarters the end is nigh. We have a great example of that right here in Salt Lake. American Stores built the tallest skyscraper in downtown (the church office building aside) and six weeks after the opening ceremony they were bought by Albertson's...

Anyway I digress. We were looking to hire an new software developer recently and in the past the methodology which had been used involved giving them a little test project first, getting to know them over the subsequent six months as we gave them increasingly larger project before eventually offering them a full time position. It worked well enough except for the fact that it took SIX MONTHS FROM START TO FINISH!!

Well we didn't have six months, so when it was apparent that we needed to hire someone I suggested using the hiring methodology from Parkinson's Law. What he basically says is that the advertisement should balance the risks and the rewards of the job to such a precise degree that only one person will answer the ad, and they will be the perfect candidate. Here are a couple of examples from the book:

Wanted – Acrobat capable of crossing a slack wire 200 feet above raging furnace. Twice nightly, three times on Saturday. Salary offered $70 per week. No pension and no compensation in the event of injury. Apply in person at Wildcat Circus between the hours of 9 AM and 10 AM.

Wanted – An archaeologist with high academic qualifications willing to spend fifteen years in excavating the Inca tombs at Helsdump on the Alligator River. Knighthood or equivalent honor guaranteed. Pension payable but never yet claimed. Salary of $6000 per year. Apply in triplicate to the Director of the Grubbenburrow Institute, Sickdale, Ill., USA.

He points out that there is no need (in the case of the first article) to insist that the candidates be skilled at wire walking, or that they be sober or free from dizzyness, because the ad has automatically excluded anyone how isn't. And in the case of the second you need not say that the person needs to be mad for archeology, because no one would apply who isn't. The point being that the salary and other benefits should be exactly balanced against the bad parts of the job (of which every job has legion) so that you attract only someone who really fits the position. So here was our posting on Craigslist:

Wanted -- full-time web programmer eager to prove himself as a software hero with mad programming skills. Intelligence, teamwork, and sacrifice will be required. Ideal applicant has read enough programming books to have a publisher preference, has had more computers than girlfriends, and can confidently use closures. Work hours are long but flexible. Starting salary is $40k per year.

About US:

  • This is a full-time position with an proven company.

  • We're extremely technical. Even our sales people are programmers.

  • We are NOT a temp-agency. This position includes health benefits.

  • Our current platform is built with Perl and MySQL. We use Ajax and HTML extensively.

  • We don't have old-fashioned time-cards, cubicles or strict dress codes

  • Employees may listen to music, play games, and surf the web as long as they get their shit done

  • If the word "shit" offends you, you probably won't work out. You don't have to be vulgar, but you have to have a thick skin and good people skills.

About the Job:

When you get here you will be the new guy. You will have to prove your programming kung-fu to everyone on the team. You will have to answer your phone after hours. It will be tough. It will require you to be extremely bright, optimistic, and a rapid learner.

After working for us for 12 months you'll be qualified to be a senior software developer at just about any company. You'll know more than most people do after a four year CS degree. You will discover tremendous new confidence in yourself and your programming abilities. In short, you'll be a bona fide software badass. Salary increase after you have proven yourself to be an equal on the team (realistically this will take you 9 to 12 months, at a minimum.)

You know all those movies that glorify honor, sacrifice and humility, and show people taking a bullet for their buddy? That's us. Only you probably won't die and we'll give you all the Rockstar you can drink.

If you feel you have what it takes, email a brief resume with references to Ross. If you're young and you don't have a lot of references yet, be prepared to impress us with all the software you have written in your spare time.

In the end we got 10 applications, about half obviously hadn't read the posting so they were immediately disqualified. We ended up interviewing three, one of the three was obviously out of his depth, the remaining two got the PERL Camel book and were told to come back in 3 days and show how much they'd picked up. We hired one of those two and we couldn't be happier with how it's worked out. And what's even more interesting is that the one guy we did hire is the one who really responded to the ad. In other words in his initial e-mail he mentioned that his favorite publisher was Addison-Wesley and that he HAD had more computers than girlfriends etc. In other words the idea that if you craft the ad carefully enough you'll get one perfect applicant has basically been born out in this (admittedly) tiny sample.

Another point to make. We had more than one person e-mail and say, I'm not at the stage where I can work for 40k anymore, but if I was young and out to prove myself I would totally have applied for that job, as one of them said it was "absolutely the best job listing/description I have ever seen".

Parkinson for the WIN

Sunday, April 05, 2009

Trip to St. George

A section of former Alternate US 71 near Carth...Image via Wikipedia

On of my wife's cousins (the last in that branch of the family) was getting married on Friday down in St. George (about a four and a half hour drive for us), so we decided to arrange babysitter's for the kids and head down. One of the first questions was whether to take one of our cars or to rent a car. I ruled out the van pretty quickly. It's old and tired, get's pretty crappy gas mileage and is kind of overkill for just two people. My car, the 91 Nissa Sentra gets great gas mileage, but always feels kind of fragile on the freeway. So we decided to rent a car, particularly since there's an Enterprise location right near our house and they have a great weekend rate.

So we ended up with a Nissan Altima. Before the trip I'd tweaked my back pretty bad while playing Squash, so I decided to take a muscle relaxant the night before and make my wife drive down, while it wore off. I took the muscle relaxant but it didn't seem to work very well. I didn't fall asleep very fast and I had no problem waking up the next morning and I didn't feel very groggy, but just to be on the safe side I had the wife drive anyway. I did fall asleep without too much trouble about an hour into the drive, but that's just me being normal, I don't need drugs for that.

I woke up and conditions were a lot different than when I had fallen asleep, the rain had changed to snow and the visibility was pretty poor. I believe I said "whoah" (possibly startling my wife...) less than two seconds later the back end started to slip a little. My wife tried putting on the brakes and suddenly we were in a full on spin. At that point there was nothing left to do but hang on and ride it out. I think we did a full 360, maybe more. We missed a nearby car by only a few feet ended, plowed off the road into the shoulder. Down the side, through a barbed wire fence and almost on to the frontage road.

Two cars stopped to see if we were okay, including the one we almost hit, which is how I knew since we couldn't see anything during the spin. He was understandably pretty upset, since if we had hit him the whole thing would have been orders of magnitude worse. Some people drove by on the frontage road and said there was a highway patrol car a little farther down (next to another car that had also gone off the road). The UHP car showed up in a little bit, and the officer was entirely humorless, though I can't really blame him. He wrote my wife a ticket for improper lane travel or something like that and called a tow truck.

The tow truck showed up pretty fast, we were fortunately within site of the town of Scipio. The barbed wire had scratched the hood, punctured one tire, ripped off some plastic under the bumper and taken one of the two mufflers and bent it 90 degrees so that it was within a few inches of the other muffler. Fortunately my wife had gotten the full damage waiver so we called Enterprise and basically said "We broke that one give us another one." Someone had to drive all the way from Salt Lake, so that ended up being a pretty long wait, but within a few hours we were back on the road.

Some additional points:

-We were going somewhere between 75 and 80 when the crash started.
-We discovered, once the car was up on the lift, that one of the rear tires was almost completely bald.
-The barbed wire fence belonged to UDOT, if it had belonged to a farmer I would have tried to replace it, but as it is I'm already paying for it.
-Enterprise was very cool about everything they definitely are getting more business from me.
-We missed the wedding, but made the dinner afterwards.
-I already didn't like Scipio, and this just solidified that, though the mechanic/tow truck driver was definitely a good guy.

Still a little bit shaken up