Friday, August 29, 2008

Sarah Palin

In Chess they often add question marks or exclamation marks to denote good or bad moves. For example putting one exclamation mark after a move might denote that it's particularly good, the best move that could have been made give the board position and something that's going to cause the opponent significant difficulty. Two question marks on the other hand would probably be put next to a move that caused the player to lose the game. You can also put an exclamation mark and a question mark, which marks the move as a "speculative attempt to complicate". Something who's consequences are difficult to predict. That's what I think the Palin choice is.

Obviously if having Palin on the ticket can attract even a tiny percentage of the disaffected Clinton supporters then that would be huge. It also seems to (in my cursory examination) to have really energized the conservative base. So thus far it seems to have been a good call, but if having Palin on the ticket defuses attacks on Obama for his inexperience (one of the biggest guns McCain has in this fight) then it could end up being ill-conceived. I'm not sure which way it will go at this point. It's often convenient after listing a bunch of pros and cons to say that something will be a "wash". I don't think so in this case I think it's going to have a significant impact on the race, but whether it will be positive or negative I can't tell at this point, but I'm leaning towards the positive.

It just keeps getting better and better

4 Comments:

Anonymous Ed said...

There's !? and ?! in chess notation. ?! is more the "interesting... in a bad sense" while !? is closer to "interesting...in a good sense"

I really like the pick of Palin right now for McCain. McCain is under attack from conservatives for not being conservative enough, and some core Republicans for not being Republican enough. Palin is like McCain in that she's not seen as establishment Republican, but more idealist, and a truer conservative than McCain. She's pro-life (shoring up that side of the Republicans), a woman (doesn't hurt with Hillary backers), a hockey mom (the Alaskan version of a soccer mom), and even gave birth to a Down's syndrome child after knowing of the condition. This is someone who knows motherhood and real life. She looks like one tough mother ... although a bit inexperienced, but it's ironic that Dems are attacking her lack of experience... when she's right up there/down there with Obama.

The press will have a field day with her small-town roots (thus further alienating small-town America from Obama), and her religion (again alienating many), and her NRA membership.

It WILL be interesting now.

5:08 PM  
Blogger aozora said...

My guess would be that the surprise move is a good one for the "historical" consideration -- which pinged McCain's own staff early when one guy stepped down because he wouldn't work against Obama -- but not a good move against Clinton.

Hillary supporters want Hillary, not just another woman or Democrat. Plain's selection could really backfire on that count with the Hillaricrats.

5:59 PM  
Blogger Ross said...

Hmm... It remains to be seen if it will backfire. I can certainly envision some scenarios where it would. But a cursory look at one of the big Hillary Forums seems to provide some anecdotal evidence that there's at least some excitement.

http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/forumdisplay.php?f=84

And remember McCain doesn't have to get all the disaffected Hillary supports just some (or rather Palin has to draw more of them in than she pushes away...)

8:49 PM  
Blogger aozora said...

McCain certainly shouldn't lose more potential Hillary votes than he could win. And I have to agree the rest of the pick considerations makes it a brilliant move.

8:57 AM  

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