Last Nights Primaries
I had heard reports that Obama was fading so I was hoping that Hillary might pull an upset in North Carolina. As it was she barely squeaked out a victory in Indiana. I would really think that by this point she would have pulled, out. The fact that she hasn't is interesting. Of course since I want to see the first actual contested convention to be held in my lifetime (okay the 1976 Republican convention was contested, but I was only 5 so I don't remember it) I'm glad that Hillary is still in it, but her motives are being increasingly perceived as selfish. But the most damning hypothesis I've heard thus far is one from Orson Scott Card.
Card claims that the key to understanding Hillary's strategy, is that she's not focused on 2008 at this point, she's looking ahead to 2012. He figures that her strategy at this point is to damage Obama enough that when he does get the nomination that he'll be too weak to beat McCain. And that in 2012 McCain will be, "so old and unhealthy he [will] decline to run again, or he will be perceived as having had an unsuccessful presidency." I'm not a big Hillary Clinton supporter, but that seems too callous and calculating for even her. But the fact that she's not dropping out after last night doesn't help out her case in this respect.
Anyway here's the full piece where he outlines his theory: http://www.ornery.org/essays/warwatch/2008-04-27-1.html
If you think the primaries are screwed up now...
Card claims that the key to understanding Hillary's strategy, is that she's not focused on 2008 at this point, she's looking ahead to 2012. He figures that her strategy at this point is to damage Obama enough that when he does get the nomination that he'll be too weak to beat McCain. And that in 2012 McCain will be, "so old and unhealthy he [will] decline to run again, or he will be perceived as having had an unsuccessful presidency." I'm not a big Hillary Clinton supporter, but that seems too callous and calculating for even her. But the fact that she's not dropping out after last night doesn't help out her case in this respect.
Anyway here's the full piece where he outlines his theory: http://www.ornery.org/essays/warwatch/2008-04-27-1.html
If you think the primaries are screwed up now...
posted by DireKobold at 11:29 AM
2 Comments:
I've seen lots of discussions on other blogs about that theory, and some reckon it as part of the "Me Generation" syndrome. At the same time, some wax on about Obama's self-understanding as a half-white/half-black man abandoned by his father, and thus trying hard to reconnect with his "blackness."
All interesting reads, but to be taken with a very large bag of salt.
interesting!
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